A market consolidating after years of expansion
Italian wine enters 2026 after an extremely positive growth cycle. 2024 marked a historic record with approximately €8.1 billion in exports (+5.5%), while 2025 closed at €7.7 billion (-3.7%), accompanied by a slight contraction in volumes of -1.8% (approximately 2.1 billion liters), according to Nomisma data.
Rather than a negative sign, this is a phase of natural consolidation. In this context, the first months of 2026 show signs of stabilization and recovery, as evidenced by data from the EFI Observatory.
Q1 2026: Positive Signs from the EFI Observatory
According to internal EFI data, the first quarter of 2026 shows growth for the network analyzed, with exports up 2% in value compared to Q1 2025, and volumes stable.
The most significant finding is the continued growth even in a more selective global context, confirming the solid positioning of Italian wine on international markets.
United States and Europe: Mature but Dynamic Markets
The United States remains the primary reference market, despite closing 2025 at approximately €1.76 billion (-9%), according to data from Il Sole 24 Ore. EFI data indicate a stabilization of the market for Q1 2026 (between 0.5% and 1%), with particularly positive performances for the premium segments and sparkling wines (+5%).
In Europe, Germany maintained substantial stability in 2025 (+0.6% in value), according to Il Sole 24 Ore data, while EFI data for Q1 2026 indicates moderate growth (+2%). The United Kingdom, after a -3.9% decline in 2025 (Il Sole 24 Ore data), is showing more dynamic signs of recovery, with estimated growth of +0.8%, driven by products with strong identity.
Emerging Markets: Growth and New Trajectories
EFI data highlights significant growth in emerging markets. Brazil recorded a +3% increase in Q1 2026, while Vietnam grew by +5%, confirming the growing interest in Italian wine.
Asia is also showing signs of recovery: despite China’s decline of over 20% in 2025 (Nomisma data), the first quarter of 2026 shows a recovery (+1.5% according to EFI), with demand evolving toward more distinctive products.
Premiumization and market polarization
The EFI Observatory confirms a clear trend: growth is increasingly driven by the premium segment. In the first quarter of 2026, this segment recorded growth of +3%, while the entry-level segment showed a more moderate performance (+1%).
Premium products now represent 20% of total EFI exports, up from 15% in 2025, highlighting a structural shift in demand.
Sparkling and White Wines Drive Growth
Sparkling wines remain among the most dynamic categories, with growth of +6% in Q1 2026, continuing a trend that saw them already account for 28.4% of Italian exports in 2024.
White wines also recorded growth (+1.5%), while red wines maintained good stability (0.5%), with better performance in the high-end segments.
Outlook 2026: More Selective but Structural Growth
According to the EFI Observatory, 2026 is expected to be a year of growth, with an estimated increase of between +8% and +12%. Emerging markets will continue to gain weight (+18%), while mature markets will offer stability and opportunities for qualitative development.
Italian wine thus confirms its ability to evolve, strengthening a growth model based on value, positioning, and international recognition.